11/4 Weekend Update & Possible Retirement
I posted to the channel last night if USD/JPY did not hold 147.90 near the top, the next downside level was quite far and would pose issues for the rest of the dollar pairs. Sure enough, AUD started to rocket up while EUR stood still, but after NFP EUR caught up and DXY continued to weaken.
ES rocketed up in three waves and came crashing down, then triple bottomed, but not at a new low, which does not pose a threat (at the moment) to the existing top. In measuring the waves from the last of the three lows, we had a zig-zag up stopping at exactly 423.6% of the A wave, which is a typical termination point. It also stopped under the 38.2% retrace of the entire wave, below 3805. That leads me to believe the trend is still down and we did a 4th wave up today, but of course, this market is exhibiting erratic behavior and we won’t know until next week. Nonetheless, a partial ES position from the top is the only directional position I am holding. In order to complete the pattern and confirm the direction is down, we need a new low in the 3800-3816 area, then a 3 wave retrace of the entire structure. While it’s possible we may have 5 down now and 3 up to 62% in the 3840 area would suffice, the structure in SPX cash looks a little different and leans more toward 3 down needing a 5th.
Apple also looks like extreme crap and supports a downside bias. Our puts (both the Dec swing and lottos for November) are doing well…
The currency pairs are where trouble lies.
We have corrective waves in both directions, making it extremely difficult to determine the overall direction.
Liquidity has been wiped from both sides before every large move, making it nearly impossible to hold a swing trade on either direction, unless we would have held from the top last week, but I wasn’t sure and closed the dollar trades last Friday for gains.
DXY gains from FOMC have all but been wiped out and likely will be next week. I hold no dollar positions at the moment and need to see how the market reacts. I am suspecting AUD and EUR will double top the FOMC candle bars, at a minimum. That’s what I’ll be looking for at the Sunday open. If we don’t see a near immediate resolution, my suspicion is we will rally into Tuesday with DXY weakening. I do not believe NFP had anything to do with today’s movement. I saw early signs of trouble in the Asia session Thursday night.
This has been the most difficult week of the year thus far to trade. We had decent tactical gains all week and another heavy week coming up with mid-terms and CPI. Hopefully we can find some good trades again next week. We had over 300 pips in scalps before FOMC, and another 200 afterward, plus a pair I never trade, CAD/JPY. I’ll be looking for more pairs outside of the typical dollar pairs I trade for possible high probability setups.
On another note…
The stress of both trading this market and running a service has been intense. This is likely the toughest market to trade in over a decade and 2023 will be even worse. I am already seeing signs of this bear market extending well into 2023 with complete opposites (and abnormal) timing for inflection points.
With only two months left to go in the year, I am considering retiring the service at the end of the year, unless there is a large amount of interest moving forward. If I do decide to continue offering it, the member’s area is going to need to be revamped with updated “How-To” videos, more training and techniques, and much better organization concerning setups, signals, and open trades. I will likely have to hire someone to do it (along with other tasks) since my administrative skills leave a lot to be desired.
I’ve been so busy trading and analyzing the market, I’ve not had the time to market the service outside of the group we have had for the last two years or make necessary improvements.
This year, although one of the best ever profit wise, has taken its toll on me in a big way. I’ll be sending out a survey shortly to all active and previous subscribers to gather feedback on where improvements can be made and whether or not there is enough interest to continue. In the interim, you’re more than welcome to reply to this with any comments you have. That will help me compile the survey questions for everyone else as well as get an idea of what improvements you would like to see which I have not thought of.
Enjoy the weekend,