A bit weary and unclear. Another possible trip back up.

May 06

A bit weary and unclear. Another possible trip back up.

Well it looked good coming down, and it did retrace and turn at the 62% mark, but I was wanting to see it hit 2720 or lower before bouncing. I mentioned 2-3 weeks ago I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trip down here and another one back up before a final top.

So far, we don’t know, but the first wave not hitting even the closest target is a bit of concern.

It turned down at the close but did not break the lower trend line and now wanders aimlessly, so I remain cautious. If it stays below 2880, bias remains to the downside. It can possibly double top the 2900 area, but any further and we are likely to see it double top the entire wave or hit the 2980 target from 2 weeks ago. We will have to be careful. Nonetheless, I am still going to hold the VIX calls as we have plenty of time. I do not anticipate further upside beyond May 20th, and that top may be after we drop and get a retrace. Remains to be seen.

The important turn dates are today, May 11 and May 20.

Currencies are likely to retrace a bit, but we have enough leeway in profit on all of them to not worry. USD/CAD was entered close to the bottom, EUR/USD close to the top, AUD/USD, not so great of an entry, so if it retraces, it would be the first position to trim. These will have to be monitored for the possibility of yet another round of taking profit, keeping a small position open, then reloading again at double tops / bottoms. USD/CAD I am likely to just leave alone.

Perhaps the dust settles and the market continues to move in our favor, but there are red flags and we need to be careful with open directional trades (mainly SPX).