I’ve posted my thoughts concerning CPI and current positioning in the channel, but for those who have not seen it —
ES — overall structure is not broken yet. 1st wave down (if that’s what it is) broke the top and the retrace back up is extremely sloppy (which it should be for a second wave) but the start of what is potentially a third wave down which we are in the middle of is also sloppy. This market can go either way, but I lean toward continued downside. We have seen breaks in the middle of a sloppy pattern before without retracements. Nothing in the cash session suggests we have to go back up anywhere & since the release is premarket we could head south and gap down at the open. Of course with such a volatile pending event, we could have a wrong move first, wiping out the slop with a quick spike up to the 3850 area, then back down quickly. And the other option (which I doubt) is a sustained move up, in which case I will be waiting until Friday for the dust to settle and a likely top.
My bias is (and has been) we’ve topped at 3927, then 3908 in ES and have held a position since.
The currency pairs are a bit trickier. My projected target for AUD/USD hit in the London session and started to break. We could end up continuing down, like ES, or (also like ES) see retraces in the wrong direction, new highs, etc…
Both AUD/USD and EUR/USD double-topped previous highs yesterday, so there is a strong possibility those hold. If not, I will have to measure waves and look at trendlines as the market moves.
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